Index: Economy

The analysis of statistical data shows that in reality quite often in the bankruptcy of organizations there are signs of its premeditation. However, the subjects are brought to responsibility for this offense in isolated cases. According to most researchers, this situation is largely due to the imperfection of methods for identifying signs of deliberate bankruptcy of organizations. In turn, the methodological basis for identifying signs of deliberate bankruptcy of organizations, predicting the probability of bankruptcy and deliberate bankruptcy of organizations depend on the understanding of the nature of bankruptcy and deliberate bankruptcy of organizations.

The concepts of bankruptcy and deliberate bankruptcy of organizations are enshrined in a number of legislative documents. In the economic aspect, the concept of bankruptcy of the organization in the Russian scientific and periodic literature is widely covered. The majority of researchers in their works consider the concepts of deliberate bankruptcy of the organization from the position of the legal aspect. The economic aspect of the concept of deliberate bankruptcy of the organization is mentioned in a few papers, which indicates underdevelopment of scientific research of the economic aspect of the phenomenon of intentional bankruptcies of organizations.

The article puts forward and proves the hypothesis that on the basis of semantic analysis and definitions of the semantic core of the concepts “bankruptcy of the organization” and “deliberate bankruptcy of organizations”, it is possible to formulate the key characteristics of bankruptcy, deliberate bankruptcy of organizations, revealing the essence of these phenomena.

According to the results of the semantic analysis and semantic core definition of the concept of “deliberate bankruptcy of the organization” the article suggests a definition of the concept of deliberate bankruptcy of the organization from the position of the subjects of demand for information in the market.

The paper deals with social-cultural aspects of catching up modernisation in the newly industrialising countries (NICs) of East and South-East Asia in the 1960s-90s. The author treats this modernisation as a kind of conservative modernisation because it combined the local traditions and several elements of modernity, the “family-centred” attitudes of the East with the “self-centred” individualism of the West. In this connection, the author considers the role of Confucianism in East Asian modernisation and discusses the problem of compatibility of the Confucian doctrine with “the spirit of capitalism”. As it is known, Max Weber wrote about their incompatibility with each other but the practice of the last third of the XX Century disapproved the conception of Weber. This apparent paradox has been explained by the profound changes in capitalism since the times when Weber elaborated his conception. When the countries under scrutiny approached to their modernisation, they borrowed and implemented the model of managerial capitalism with the developmental state and economic bureaucracy. The state and its officialdom played the leading role in development of these countries, being much more important for modernisation than “the spirit of capitalism” with private initiatives. Meanwhile, the developmental state’s activity corresponded to some principles of the Confucian doctrine, so Confucianism that glorified the harmony and strong order appeared as well compatible with fast modernisation, particularly in Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

However, the Confucian heritage and the relics of communalism became the obstacles to transition towards a knowledge-based economy. A focus on learning instead of studying in education according to the old Confucian traditions restrains the students’ creativity and oppresses an endeavour to express individuality. Thus, the practice of conservative modernisation, which was very effective at the stage of imitative, catching up industrial development, succeeds in a blind alley because does not enable to begin implementing a knowledge-based, innovative model of development that presupposes a free creative activity of individuals.

At the same time, liberalisation of economy, particularly after the Asian financial-economic crisis of 1997-1998, leads to deepening social differentiation and erodes the base of the previous developmental state. In the changing conditions, a set of the so-called “Asian values” has been used not for further modernisation but for justifying the conservative, authoritarian tendencies in politics and ideology.

The main conclusion the author makes from his consideration concerns the debates about the global shift of the world economy’s core to the East (including China): in the nearest decades neither China nor East Asia as a whole will become the world economic hegemon. The West with the US domination will remain the global scientific-technological and, therefore, economic leader in the world.

K. Marx fragmentarily presented the theory of industrial cycles in “Capital”, which investigated the formation and development of capitalism up to the maturing of free competition. A brief review of this theory shows that J. Schumpeter’s criticism is superficial. K. Marx did not deduce the mathematical laws of crises. The present paper partially fills this gap for the state-monopoly capitalism on the basis of the laws of surplus value and monopoly profit. Two models are considered, the transition from the first TM-2 to the second TM-2m is an ascent from the abstract to the concrete.Whereas TM-2 endogenously reproduces cycles in the positive growth rate of net output, TM-2m endogenously generates industrial cycles with decreases in net output in crises. This is achieved by converting a key parameter of the automation function into a new discrete variable, depending on the excess accumulation of capital. In addition, proportional control over the rate of capital accumulation has been introduced.TM-2m allows comparing impacts of economic policies on industrial cycles and on long-term trends in the US economy depending on a target rate of capital accumulation chosen by the State and financial capital in distinct scenarios.In 2018, the crisis will start, opening the next industrial cycle ending in 2025 according to scenario 1 or in 2026 according to scenario 2. The state monopoly-capitalism is entering a new period of over-production when sound economic policy becomes even more critical.

The article is devoted to the substantiation of the status of Marxism as a revolution in economic science. To achieve this goal, the author has to resolve a number of methodological difficulties associated with the interdisciplinary nature of Marxism, as revolutionary changes may relate to the philosophical, sociological, political spheres of Marxism, but do not affect the economic area. The author shows the role of the ideological filter accompanying Marxism, which for a long time did not allow to grasp an idea of authentic Marxism. In addition, Marxism in its development has gone through several stages, so you need to choose a starting point to assess its revolutionary character. In the course of the study, the author comes to the conclusion that Marxism has led to fundamental changes in economic theory, having formed an independent direction of economic thought, which remains in demand in our time. However, from the standpoint of T. Kuhn’s theory of paradigms Marxist political economy is not the result of a revolution and a new paradigm in relation to the classical political economy, but it can be considered as its continuation in the form of synthesis of ideas of classical political economy and German classical philosophy, especially Hegel dialectical method and materialistic approach to understanding the nature of social relations, suggested by L. Feuerbach. However, the theorists of Marxism evaluate it as the result of revolution in economic science, since the development through contradictions and qualitative jumps constitute the essence of Marxism.

It is typical for innovative projects to be not profitable during the first stages of their implementation, as well as to carry high levels of risk because of high uncertainty degree in forecasted cash flows. In that situation standard methods of economic efficiency analysis do not allow to obtain proper evaluation of whether it is reasonable to make investments. The paper describes contemporary methods of such evaluation able to solve this problem. These are the real options method and the fuzzy-sets method. A critical analysis of foreign and Russian works is conducted. It is revealed that real options approach is quite widely used in foreign articles but is almost absent in the Russian ones, whereas a fuzzy-sets method is actively applied both abroad and in Russia. At the same time combined utilization of both methods is quite rare. Despite more accurate results in highly risky projects evaluations brought by the real options method comparing traditional approaches, it is also could be complemented with the fuzzy sets methods. It could allow to improve accuracy of innovative project evaluation made by a venture investor and to enhance the toolset available for him.

1. Akinina V.P. Innovatsionnoe reformirovanie natsional’noi ekonomiki v kontekste sovremennykh finansovo-ekonomicheskikh transformatsii i global’noi turbulentnosti: teoriya, metodologiya, praktika. Diss. dokt. ekon. nauk [Innovative reformation of national economy in the context of contemporary financial and economic transformations of global turbulence: theory, methodology, practice. Dr. econ. sci. diss.]. Stavropol’, 2011.
2. Gareev T.F.Formirovanie kompleksnoi otsenki innovatsii na osnove nechetko-interval’nykh opisanii. Diss. kand. ekon. nauk [Innovations complex evaluation development based on fuzzy interval descriptions. PhD econ. sci. diss.]. Kazan’, 2009.
3. Muzyko E.I. Analiz razvitiya podkhodov k traktovke ekonomicheskoi sushchnosti kategorii “real’nyi optsion” [Analysis of approaches evolution to interpretation of “real option” concept economic essence. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika – Economic analysis: theory and practice, 2011, no. 36, pp. 12–17.
4. Nedosekin A.O. Metodologicheskie osnovy modelirovaniya finansovoi deyatel’nosti s ispol’zovaniem nechetko-mnozhestvennykh opisanii. Diss. dokt. ekon. nauk [Methodogy basis for financial activity modelling using fuzzy sets descriptions. Dr. econ. sci. diss.]. St. Petersburg, 2003. 280 p.
5. Black F., Scholes M. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 1973, no. 81 (3), pp. 637–659.
6. Botteron P., Casanova J.-F. Start-ups defined as portfolios of embedded options. FAME – International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering. Research Paper, 2003, no. 85, pp. 1–14.
7. Geske R. The valuation of compound options. Journal of Financial Economics, 1979, vol. 7, iss. 1, pp. 63–81. doi: 10.1016/0304-405X(79)90022-9
8. Gong P., He Z.-W., Meng J.-L. Time-dependent Volatility Multi-stage Compound Real Option Model and Application. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2006, February, pp. 1–14.
9. Ho S., Liao S. A fuzzy real option approach for investment project valuation. Expert systems with applications, 2011, vol. 38, no. 12, pp. 15296–15302.
10. Hsu Y.-W. Staging of venture capital investment: a real options analysis. Small Business Economics, 2010, vol. 35, iss. 3, pp. 265–281. doi: 10.1007/s11187-008-9158-2
11. Huchzermeier А., Loch C.H. Project management under risk: using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R&D. Management Science, 2001, vol. 47, iss. 1, pp. 85–101. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.47.1.85.10661
12. Rezaei J., Ortt R., Scholten V. An improved fuzzy preference programming to evaluate entrepreneurship orientation. Applied Soft Computing, 2013, vol. 13, iss. 5, pp. 2749–2758. doi: 10.1016/j.asoc.2012.11.012
13. Shijan F., Yinyan C. AHP-Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of venture investment and financing system: based on the case of incubation base in anhui. Canadian Social Science, 2015, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 148–153.
14. Tolga A., Kahraman C. Fuzzy multiattribute evaluation of R&D projects using a real options valuation model. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 2008, vol. 23, pp. 1153–1176.
15. Wang B., Wang X., Wang J. Construction and empirical analysis of agricultural science and technology enterprises investment risk evaluation index system. International Conference on Future Computer Supported Education, Seoul, 22–23 August 2012, vol. 2, pp. 485–491. doi: 10.1016/j.ieri.2012.06.121

In explaining the causes of the acute economic crisis, which is Russia experiencing now; it is important to step aside from the widespread simplified opportunistic interpretations, connecting it to the events of recent times. The real causes of this crisis are determined by the fundamental phenomena in the history of Russia and the Russian economy of the last century. As the first reason the authors name a huge loss of human capital during the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century. The second reason is a wrong way of reforming the Russian economy in the early 90’s. The third reason is a long period of minimizing labor and intellectual efforts of all sectors of Soviet society in the period of stagnation, in contrast to their mobilization in the 30-60s years. As a result of these three causes Russia has currently produced, at least four “dwarves”: government, society, business (to a lesser extent) and much of the economic science. The article provides several scenarios for the Russian economy in the situation when these “dwarves” influence all the processes occurring in the country. The conclusion is that the crisis of 2010, with the sharpest (in the last 25 years) foreign policy crisis, marks the end of an era of modern Russian history related to social and economic transformations of post-Soviet period, or even the entire post-Stalin period.

1. Vaksberg A. Iz ada v rai i obratno [From hell to heaven and back]. Moscow, Olimp Publ., 2003. 103 p.
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3. Kostyrchenko G.V. V plenu u krasnogo faraona. Politicheskie presledovaniya evreev v SSSR v poslednee stalinskoe desyatiletie [Caught in the Red Pharaoh. Political persecution of the Jews in the Soviet Union in the last decade of Stalin]. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya Publ., 1994. 400 p.
4. Suslov V.I., ed. Rossiya v zerkale mezhdunarodnykh reitingov. Informacionno-spravochnoe izdanie [Russia in the mirror of the international rankings. Information and reference book]. Novosibirsk, IEIE SB RAS Publ., 2015. 115 p.
5. Fomin D.A. Vysshaya shkola: poisk rastrachennogo smysla [High school: the search of the lost meaning]. Svobodnaya mysl’ – Free Thought, 2008, no. 2–3.
6. Fomin D.A. Akademizm kak nauka: granitsy zanyatiya v ramkakh vozmozhnostei [Academic science: the limits of employment opportunities within]. Terra Economicus, 2011, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 88–115.
7. Khanin G.I. Ekonomicheskaya istoriya Rossii v noveishee vremya. T. 1. Ekonomika SSSR v kontse 30-kh godov – 1987 god [The economic history of Russia in modern times. Vol. 1. The economy of the USSR from 1930 to 1987]. Novosibirsk, NSTU Publ., 2008. 516 p.
8. Khanin G.I. Ekonomicheskaya istoriya Rossii v noveishee vremya. T. 2. Ekonomika SSSR i RSFSR v 1988–1991 godakh [The economic history of Russia in modern times. Vol. 2. Economy of the USSR and the Russian Federation in 1988–1991]. Novosibirsk, NSTU Publ., 2010. 408 p.
9. Khanin G.I. Ekonomicheskaya istoriya Rossii v noveishee vremya. T. 3. Rossiiskaya eko-nomika v 1992–1998 gody [The economic history of Russia in modern times. Vol. 3. The Russian Economy in 1992–1998]. Novosibirsk, NSTU Publ., 2014. 711 p.
10. Khanin G.I. Izbrannye trudy. T. 1 [Selected works. Vol. 1]. Novosibirsk, SIBAGS Publ., 2015.
11. Khanin G.I. Dinamika ekonomicheskogo razvitiya SSSR [The dynamics of economic development of the USSR]. Novosibirsk, Nauka Publ., 1991. 267 p.
12. Khanin G.I. Na chem spotykaetsya sovetskaya nauka [What stumbles Soviet science]. Postizhenie [Comprehension]. Moscow, Progress Publ., 1989, pp. 140–169.
13. Khanin G.I. Vysshee obrazovanie i rossiiskoe obshchestvo [Higher education and the Russian society]. EKO – ECO, 2008, no. 8–9.
14. Khanin G.I. Gruppa kompanii “Poliplastik”: malen’kaya kartinka dlya uyasneniya ochen’ bol’shikh voprosov (i poyavleniya novykh) [Group of companies “Polyplastic”: a small picture for understanding the very big issues (and appearance of a new)]. Voprosy regulirovaniya ekonomiki – Journal of Economic Regulation, 2013, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 6–22.
15. Khanin G.I. Sovremennaya rossiiskaya burzhuaziya (opyt ekonomicheskogo eskiza) [Contemporary Russian bourgeoisie (the trial economic sketch)]. Terra Economicus, 2013, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 9–28.
16. Khanin G.I. Strakhovanie v RF v 1998–2012 gody: statistiko-politekonomicheskii vzglyad [Insurance in Russian in 1998–2012: a statistical and politeconomical overlook]. Terra Economicus, 2014, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 87–101.
17. Khanin G.I. Rynok chastnykh tsennykh bumag v RF: statistiko-politekonomicheskii vzglyad [Private securities market of the Russian federation in 1998–2012 years: statistical and political economy aspects]. Idei i ideally – Ideas & ideals, 2015, no. 1, vol. 1, pp. 33–55.
18. Khanin G.I., Fomin D.A. Al’ternativnye otsenki razvitiya rossiiskoi ekonomiki: metody i rezul’taty. V 3 ch. [Alternative estimates of the Russian economy: methods and results. In 3 pt.]. Novosibirsk, SibAGS Publ., 2011.
19. Khanin G.I., Fomin D. A. Den’gi dlya modernizatsii: skol’ko ikh nuzhno i gde ikh vzyat’ [The money for the modernization of how many they need and where to get them ]. Svobodnaya mysl’ – Free Thought, 2011, no. 1, pp. 45–60.
20. Khanin G.I., Fomin D.A. Tsena modernizatsii [Price of the modernization]. Rossiya i sovremennyi mir – Russia and the Modern World, 2013, no. 1, pp. 158–166.
21. Khanin G.I., Fomin D.A. Ekonomicheskii krizis 2010-kh godov v Rossii: prichiny, posledstviya, puti vykhoda [The Russian economic crisis of 2010s: causes, consequences, and ways out]. Terra Economicus, 2014, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 15–32.

The socio-economic information published by the statistical and other authorities is a basic source of information available for a quantitative analysis and forecasting. To use this information correctly it is necessary to know the methodology, techniques applied to calculating indicators and data aggregation, as well as the methods for checking the results obtained. The paper discusses various methods allowing better assessments and more reliable conclusions such as: the verification of hypothesis on the other statistics, the use of alternative models for the same data set, the combination of different data analysis, including historical methods, artificial index computation etc. An important task in analytics and forecasting is to assess accuracy of the initial information, accumulation of errors occurred in data processing, and, therefore, accuracy of assessments obtained. The paper also discusses the issues of application of expert evaluation methods and qualitative characteristics processing techniques.

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The authors argue the need to develop a strategy for the country’s socio-economic break through, the formation of a new type of economic system – a knowledge-based economy. A qualitative characteristic of this type of economy in the form of a conceptual model is given in the article, and they also consider approaches to quantify the knowledge economy.

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The report analyzes the period of development of Siberia since the beginning of «reorganization» (1985) till 2015. Demographic statistics is the basic element of the quantitative analysis in compari-son of the pre-revolutionary, Soviet and Post-Soviet periods of the development. The modern period (1985–2015) is described using a more developed system of the statistical indicators with sufficient (for assessment of trends) reliability and comparability. Certain conclusions, regarding both defining the modern situation and scenarios of further development of events, are drawn on the basis of the analysis of the dynamics of social and economic indicators, comparisons to the all-Russian trends and conceptual settings of the state control system.

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Energy in the framework of national economies and megaregions’ moving forward appear to be a meaningful factor of industrial development since the First Industrial Revolution at the end of XVIII-th century. In the article the attention is mostly paid to the dynamics of the industrial and energy exploration of Siberia megaregion, which supposes five significant stages: early one (the end of the XIX century – beginning of the XX century), intensive (between the 1930—50s), mature industrialization (1960—1980s), deindustrialization (the 1990th years) and new industrialization (2010—2030s). It’s demonstrated, that these very processes were rather ambiguous, i.e. the change of the leaders in sources of energy, the difference in approaches to the use of foreign technologies, the diversity in demand on well-trained labor force and engineering knowledge, the race between manufacturing and energy on the economic landscape of Siberia. Retrospective analysis is important for assessing the priorities for new industrialization in the Siberia megaregion, which is necessary to make up on the basis of advanced manufacturing and not only follow the well-known actual advantages of the megaregion as the possessor of the abundant natural resources and previous years accumulated the industrial capacity on the basis of located in Siberia different enterprises, i.e. military, nuclear, space, etc.

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